For the 4th straight month, New Home Sales gained, posting the best numbers since last September's meltdown and handily beating economist expectations.
The available supply of homes is down to 7.5 months nationwide.
It's further evidence that the housing market may have bottomed at some point this past spring.
To be sure, the strong housing data is, in part, a reaction to three outside factors:
But, buyers are buyers and the clearing out of outstanding inventory provides terrific support for home prices. It also gives them reason to rise.
Coupled with the blowout Existing Home Sales numbers from July, therefore, this months' New Homes Sale report may be a signal that the Buyers' Market is ending and the Sellers' Market is beginning.
If you're planning to buy a home this year or next, it may be time to get a move on. Wait too long, and prices may be up.
David Hitt - San Fernando Valley Realtor and Training Director - has been serving buyers and sellers in the San Fernando Valley areas for over 13 years. His knowledge of the real estate market in Encino, Sherman Oaks, Lake Balboa, Studio City, Van Nuys and North Hollywood have helped him achieve an excellent reputation throughout the Coldwell Banker network.
Whether your home has ample room for a garden or just limited space on a balcony, upside-down planters make it easy to grow tomatoes at home.
Now, growing tomatoes upside-down may sound like a strange idea, but versus in-ground planting, free-hanging methods carry some distinct advantages:
The hardest part of growing tomatoes upside-down, actually, is finding a suitable apparatus.
A quick look at YouTube shows no less than 105 How-To Videos and a search on Google turns up a similarly large set. Clearly, making an upside-down planter can be a DIY project.
But if DIY is not your thing, Hammacher Schlemmer makes a suitable, $80 solution called The Upside Down Tomato Garden. It's pictured at right and measures 25" square at its base -- compact enough to fit most anywhere.
Starting next week, being approved for a home loan could be much more difficult.
The new rules mark the first major underwriting update since April of this year. The changes are mostly geared at fraud prevention.
Among the updates:
But there are other changes, too. As examples:
Consider this post to be your advance warning. Not everyone that qualifies for a mortgage on Monday, August 31 will qualify on Tuesday, September 1.
Therefore, if you have a pending need for a mortgage -- for either a purchase or a refinance -- it's probably best to talk with a lender as soon as possible. The deadline is based on the date of application -- not the date of closing.
Read the complete Fannie Mae announcement online.
18 of 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller Index showed rising home values in June. It's the 5th consecutive month with strong numbers and the best showing for the benchmark housing index since home values began deflating in 2006.
Some would argue it's a sign that housing has finally bottomed out. Even Case-Shiller representatives acknowledge that home prices are "on an upswing".
Despite the Case-Shiller Index's popularity with economists and the press, though, it's falls short of being a perfect housing indicator. As examples:
Nevertheless, flaws aside, Case-Shiller is still important. It helps identify broader trends in housing and many people believe the housing is the keystone of the economy right now.
This is why June's Case-Shiller Index gives cause for hope. The nascent housing recovery has a long road ahead but June's Case-Shiller data shows that we're heading in the right direction.
The housing market continues to surprise. Last week, the latest good news came in the form of the monthly Existing Home Sales report.
An "existing home" is a home sold by an existing owner as opposed to a developer. It's non-new construction property.
The data on Existing Home Sales was noteworthy for its trends:
Furthermore, first-time home buyers and buyers of "distressed" homes accounted for nearly one-third of the market activity each.
But, before we declare a bottom in housing, it's important that we remember the First Rule of Real Estate -- All Real Estate Is Local.
The Existing Home Sales report is not neighborhood-specific. It lumps cities like San Diego and Saint Paul into a giant sample set and fails to account for regional differences in real estate, let alone neighborhood ones.
This is the primary reason why on-the-ground real estate agents are better sources for a market pulse versus a report from a national trade group. The national group can't know the happenings of every street and every home in a market.
That said, however, the national data isn't completely useless.
Looking at the long-term patterns in the Existing Home Sales report, we can infer that ample supplies, low mortgage rates and tax credits are spurring home sales in a lot of U.S. markets.
Eventually, this will lead home prices higher.
Filing an official Change of Address form with the United States Postal Service is one of the most important steps in the moving process.
It's how bills, letters and catalogs find you after your change of residence.
Strangely, though, a lot of people wait until the last-minute-before-moving before telling the post office that a Change of Address in needed. As a result, mail gets lost-in-transit as "undeliverable".
It doesn't have to be like that.
In addition to the USPS' own online forms, there are third-party companies that combine secure online address changes with money-saving coupons for sure-to-be-needed utilities including cable, phone and electric.
If you're moving or relocating, think about updating your USPS mailing address as soon as you have a move date. This will give the postal service enough lead time to process your order and, if the move doesn't go through as planned, you can always cancel out.
They key is to make sure your mail delivery stays uninterrupted -- from one home to the next.
Despite the slightly flat Unemployment Rate, the government's July Non-Farm Payrolls report reinforced the notion that the recession may be ending soon, if it hasn't already.
Just 247,000 jobs were lost last month -- much fewer than analysts had expected.
Now, if it seems strange to be talking economic recovery while Americans are still losing jobs -- 5.7 million in the last 12 months, in fact -- remember that we have to take the data in context.
Job loss doesn't lead to economic growth, per se, but analysts tend to treat employment data as a lagging indicator. Business is often slow to hire and slow to fire, so the jobs report rarely reflects the "right now".
A terrific real-world example of jobs data as a lagging indicator is that the peak of recent job loss -- January 2009 -- occurred 4 months after the peak of the financial crisis in September 2008.
The same pattern was present during the Recession of 2001.
Government data shows that job loss peaked during the recession in October 2001, 1 month before the recession's official end. Meanwhile, job losses continued nationwide for the next year and didn't turn net positive until October 2002 -- nearly 12 months into the recession's subsequent recovery.
This is what we mean by lagging indicator and it's why investors are cheering today's jobs data. Strength in today's report may be signaling the end of the recession.
Unfortunately for today's rate shoppers, it pushing mortgage rates higher. As stock markets soar, bond markets sink.
If you plan to use the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program, time is running out. The program expires November 30, 2009 and closing on a home can take up to 60 days.
That leaves you 6 weeks from today to find a home and go under contract.
The First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit program was passed as part of the 2009 economic stimulus plan. It credits up to $8,000 in tax payments to qualified buyers.
The qualification criteria are as follows:
Furthermore, not everyone who's qualified will get the full $8,000. The credit can't exceed 10 percent of a home's purchase price, for example, and households with income approaching program limits get lesser benefits, too.
Meanwhile, an interesting note about the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit is that it's a true tax credit and not a deduction. A person or couple claiming the $8,000 credit whose "normal" tax liability is $5,000 would get back $5,000 or whatever had been withheld for federal income taxes plus an additional $3,000.
Review the program's criteria at your leisure, but don't wait until October to start looking for homes. If you can't close by November 30, 2009 for any reason whatsoever, you won't qualify for the tax credit.
Better to be ahead of the deadline than chasing it.
"Housing starts" are new homes on which construction has recently started.
Not surprising, in a related story, homebuilder confidence moved to a 12-month high.
Ironically, an increase in newly-built homes could actually slow a nationwide housing rebound because values are driven by supply and demand. More in-the-pipeline supply means that buyer demand has to stay strong or else prices will eventually fall.
So far this year, though, demand has kept pace.
Over the past 6 months, the combination of low mortgage rates, aggressive home valuations, and federal and state tax credits has kept buyer activity up and home values on the rise.
It looks like banks are less scared of mortgage loans these days.
In its quarterly survey to member banks, the Federal Reserve asked senior bank loan officers whether "prime" residential mortgage guidelines had tightened in the last 3 months.
Just one-fifth of banks said guidelines tightened last quarter, a dramatically lower figure versus last quarter -- a signal that mortgage underwriting may get less restrictive in the months ahead.
It is worth noting, however, that not a single responding bank said its guidelines had eased. For now, getting through underwriting is still much tougher than it was 2 years ago.
Some of the changes today's borrowers face include:
Furthermore, second mortgages are scarce when loan-to-values exceed 80 percent.
The underwriting changes of the last 24 months preclude many Americans from getting access to today's low rates if the Fed's reported trend continues, that could reverse before the end of the year.
Some analysts claim that credit tightening started the U.S. recession. Credit loosening, therefore, could help end it.
At least one thing is back to normal in the mortgage markets -- it's no longer cheaper to go with a fixed rate mortgage than an ARM.
As reported by Freddie Mac, a conforming 5-year ARM is priced a half-percent lower than a comparable 30-year fixed.
Earlier this year, the pricing was reversed.
It's uncommon for fixed rate mortgages to be cheaper than comparable ARMs because, with fixed rate mortgages, lenders commit to a particular interest rate over long period of time. There is a lot of risk that comes with doing that.
By contrast, an adjustable rate mortgage is designed so that after a certain number of years, the mortgage rate changes to reflect the current market conditions.
In theory, ARMs are less risky for lenders than are fixed rate mortgages and, therefore, we would expect them to have lower mortgage rates. That wasn't the case for the 6 months ending in early-May, however. When fixed rate mortgages were scraping the 4.500 percent marker in January, 5-year ARMs weren't struggling to stay sub-5.
The same goes for late-April's mortgage rate dip.
Historically, there's been a trade-off between ARMs and fixed rate mortgages.
Earlier this year, market conditions rendered fixed rate loans the best of both worlds -- lower rates and predictability. Today, we're back to "normal".
No matter how long you plan to live in your home, talk to your loan officer about your adjustable rate options, if only to know your options. Given today's interest rate disparity and how it can affect your monthly mortgage obligation, you may find the unpredictable nature of an ARM to be acceptable risk.
The number of homes under contract to sell rose in June for the fifth straight month.
It's the Pending Home Sales Index's longest winning streak since 2003 and another piece of evidence that the housing market may be rebounding.
Separately, the data is interesting. All together, it paints the portrait of a recovery.
That said, we can't forget that the Pending Home Sales Index is somewhat unique versus other real estate reports. Whereas data on existing and new home sales measures closed transactions, the Pending Home Sales Index only measures intent to buy.
Just because a home goes under contract, in other words, doesn't mean that it actually will sell.
Purchase transactions can fall apart for a multitude of reasons including, but not limited to, buyer-seller disputes, failed home inspections, and an inability to secure mortgage financing. The Pending Home Sales Index doesn't account for these types of issues.
In general, though, as the number of homes under contract increases, Existing Home Sales increase, too -- usually on a 2-month lag. Home sale data should remain strong through early-Fall, at least.
For active home buyers, be conscious of the fact that that more home sales plus falling home supplies leads to higher home values. If you're looking for a bargain, the longer you wait, the less likely you may be to find it.
Foreclosure-tracker RealtyTrac reports that the number of foreclosures nationwide rose 7 percent on a month-to-month basis last month.
However, 3 states dominated the foreclosure list, tallying more foreclosures between them than the rest of the country combined.
On a per-household basis, the states ranked 2, 3 and 4. Only Nevada's foreclosure rate was higher.
Now, we point out these statistics for two reasons.
The first is to remind you that foreclosures can be highly local. For all of the foreclosure-related stories that run in the papers and on TV, defaults make a much larger impact on home values in some areas versus others.
And, second -- foreclosures can represent a terrific buying opportunity. Not every foreclosed home is in pristine condition, but there is a plethora of affordable housing out there, suitable for first-time buyer, move-up buyers and investors, too.
Furthermore, as banks get better at disposing of foreclosed homes, the process of buying one isn't as challenging as it was, say, 12 months ago.
As part of its research, RealtyTrac.com catalogues a lot of foreclosed homes and lists them online. However, you may find it better to start your search with a local real estate agent that knows the foreclosure market.
So long as buying foreclosures is a high-touch process -- and it is a high-touch process -- you may want to have a human face and agent to guide you through it.
The complete RealtyTrac report is available online.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
It also reiterated plans to support the mortgage market to the tune of $1.5 trillion.
In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy is "leveling off" and that financial markets continue to improve.
The change in verbiage is the rosiest from the Fed since the start of the recession and it may signal that the downturn's end is near.
That said, the Fed highlighted lingering economic soft spots that could still impact a recovery through the end of 2009 and into 2010.
Furthermore, rising energy costs remain a threat to inflation.
Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period" and to honor its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage bond market.
Market reaction to the Fed's press release is muted. With no real change in message and a basic confirmation of what most investors already knew, Wall Street sees no reason to panic. Mortgage rates are unchanged.
The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is September 22-23, 2009.
As the unofficial end of summer, Labor Day weekend is popular vacation time for American families.
And this year, with home sales on the rise and mortgage rates relatively low, early-September figures to be a popular closing date, too.
These points may appear unrelated, but there is an important connection between them.
Like workers in every other industry, employees of the mortgage, title, and real estate industries are just as likely to be taking time off on and around Labor Day.
For buyers with pending contracts, therefore, the closer that early-September closing date gets, the fewer industry folks that will be working to help close on your new house.
The same goes for households in the middle of a refinance.
With less than 4 weeks until Labor Day, you can take steps today to prepare for other people's time off. Here's a few of them:
And, perhaps most important, fulfill your mortgage lender's requests for additional supporting documentation within 24 hours of notice. This includes requests for updated paystubs, bank statements, and tax returns.
The best reason to handle these tasks in advance is that, by the time Labor Day is around the corner, basic mortgage approval tasks will already take longer to complete -- from clearing conditions to sending a wire. Reduced staff means slower response times.
Stay ahead of the curve and help save yourself from potential headaches down the road. And, if possible, avoid closing on the Friday before Labor Day and the Tuesday after.
On these days, staffs are the most lean of all.
The Federal Open Market Committee kicks off a two-day meeting this morning.
It's one of 8 scheduled meetings the FOMC holds annually.
The FOMC purpose is to discuss the nation's economic health and, as appropriate, makes new policy that either stimulates or retards economic growth.
The FOMC's most well-known tool for reaching this goal is the Fed Funds Rate, currently stationed in a highly-stimulative range of 0.000 to 0.250 percent.
Recent data suggests that the economy is recovering, but as of this morning, Wall Street expects the FOMC to leave the Fed Funds Rate as-is, in its current range.
However, it's not what the Fed does at its adjournment that should matter to today's rate shoppers and home buyers -- it's what the Fed says.
At 2:15 PM Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will issue a statement about the U.S. economy with the policy-making body's outlook for the rest of 2009 and 2010. If the FOMC's overall message is one of economic strengthening, expect stock markets to rally and mortgage markets to sink on the news.
This would push mortgage rates higher.
On the other hand, if the FOMC alludes to weakness in labor markets and capital investment, it should help buoy rates lower.
The Federal Reserve does not control mortgage rates, but it can definitely exert an influence. For this reason, floating a mortgage rate into Fed's official announcement is risky. Moreover, given the recent momentum in mortgage rates and in the markets, it seems more likely that rates could go up versus come down.
The Fed's press release hits the wires at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. If you're the cautious type, consider locking your mortgage rate prior to its release.
Don't miss our First Annual Neighborhood Mega-Garage Sale on Saturday August 29th from 9am to 3pm. If you live between the street boundaries of Sepulveda, Burbank, Van Nuys Blvd and the 101 freeway you can join in. Please let us know if you want to participate so we can add you to the list. You will be enjoying a day of selling your "stuff" on your own lawn while many of your neighbors will be enjoying the same thing. We'll coordinate this event for you by advertising in the LA Times and the Daily News.
We'll be providing directional signs to your yard sale posted on your street corner. This will be a huge event with no charge to you - just come on out Saturday August 29th and sell your prized possessions and we'll handle the advertising for you!
Sponsored by your neighborhood Realtor of over 13 years, David Hitt with Coldwell Banker, (818)422-1702 david@homesinthevalley.info www.san-fernando-valley-ca-real-estate.com and your neighborhood Mortgage Lender of over 23 years, Joe Tishkoff with Skyline Financial, (818)370-8302 cell joe@homeloansbyjoe.com http://www.HomeLoansbyJoe.com.
Homes that are participating:
15149 Killion Street-Gaggenau Stainless Gas 4 burner cook top, Gaggenau Stainless electric BBQ, Gaggenau Convection Single Wall Oven, Vintage Refrigerator Working, Whirlpool 21cu Water/Ice thru the door, Mens Suits 42-44 reg, End Tables, Coffee Tables, Sets of Dishes, flatware, Stationary Exercise Bike, Patio Set White: Table 4 chairs 2 ottomans, plus cushions, Tall Computer hutch/desk, Throw rugs, Glassware Barware, Linens, Dining Set 4 chairs/table and Buffet, Metal Bookshelves, Shirts, Ties, Shoes, Scarves, Asst. Clothing, Suitcases
14633 Killion Street-books, linens, theatrical lighting, Christmas lights, records, tchakes, clothing, kitchen items, picture frames, art, picnic tables and chairs
14600 Killion Street-old antiques & collectible items, pottery from 20’s and 30’s, maple 30’s bed, clothes, rod iron floor grates, 4 boxes of Mexican pottery,
5259 Lemona Avenue-adult bike, toddlers items, silverware, 12 in kids bike, coffeemaker new, shoes, clothes, rocking chair, speakers, cds, radios, movies (dvd/vhs)
5421 Cedros Avenue-furniture, desk, glass top w/marble base, dining table, possibly a futon & armoire, kid items(books, roller blades, unused crochet, baby blankets, boys clothes, board games), computer monitor
5239 Lemona Avenue-glider rocker, hot wheels cars, Thomas trains and track, household items
5265 Lemona Avenue-novelty items, stuffed elk head, whole bunch of Hollywood Celebrity collectibles ( Streisand, Bette Midler, John Lennon, Princess Diana, Elvis, JFK etc), large collection of film related books(Hollywood Historical Hardbacks), Sal Mineo Collection, large political memorabilia from JFK to Obama and some collectible dolls, Original 1954 Marilyn Monroe Calendar in Mint Condition, Historical Headline collection from 1960’s to 2009, People magazine Historical Headlines, Celebrity Biographies, Vintage Collectibles, appliances, dinner ware, wicker baskets, clothes
5411 Cedros Avenue-one or two TV’s, dvd players, lots of power tools, other tools, clothes, sarapes, household items, work out bench, dvds, books, schlage locks and door handles
5309 Lemona Avenue-kitchen items, appliances, dishes, children’s toys, clothes, books, furniture(bunk beds etc), luggage, household items
5244 Lemona Avenue-kids clothing, toys, household goods, plates, vases, TV
15033 Killion Street-Craftsman table saw, lamp, dresser, golf clubs, okeefe & merit range, boutique racks, furniture
14542 Otsego Avenue-household items
15106 Clark Street-kids stuff
5410 Norwich Avenue-clothes, electronics, toys, infant clothes, Thomas train collection, refrigerator
5427 Burnet Avenue-kids toys and clothes
5329 Cedros Avenue-clothes, tools, TV, suitcase, bric-a-brac
14758 Hartsook Street-kids toys, clothes, women’s costume jewelry and more.
5326 Willis Avenue-clothing, electronics, books, tv’s, shoes, cds, dvds, household items, electronic accessories, nick-nacks, rollerblades, ipods
14800 Weddington Street-furniture, clothes, collectibles
5416 Norwich Avenue
14712 Hartsook Street
5521 Noble Avenue
5431 Norwich Avenue
5221 Lemona Avenue
5237 Norwich Avenue
14758 Hartsook Street
5326 Willis Avenue
5446 Burnet Avenue
5457 Lemona Avenue
5457 Noble Avenue
5339 Norwich Avenue
5450 Norwich Avenue
15100 Weddington Avenue
15225 Weddington Avenue
15149 Weddington Avenue
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